Match: La Liga
Fixture: Sevilla vs Getafe
Local Kick-off Time: August 25th at 21:30
Handicap Prediction:
Asian Handicap: Sevilla -0.25
European Handicap: Home Win + Draw
Predicted Scores: 2-1, 2-2, 3-2
Predicted Total Goals: 3, 4, 5
Comprehensive Analysis:
Sevilla have made a sluggish start to the new season, losing 2-3 away to Athletic Bilbao in the first round to suffer an opening-day defeat. Although their attack showed firepower with 2 goals scored (1.5 goals per game on average), defensive vulnerabilities were exposed—conceding 5 goals in two league matches, highlighting poor defensive stability. The injury crisis has worsened matters: key center-back Loïc Badé, midfield core Jordan Henderson, and winger Moussa Dembélé are all sidelined, significantly weakening their midfield and defensive strength. However, Sevilla hold an overwhelming historical advantage: they have an 80% win rate against Getafe at home in the past 5 years, and their squad value is three times that of their opponents. Hosting at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium, if they can maintain their home tradition of “winning once leading” (80% first-half goal rate in their last 10 home games), they may use their psychological advantage to end their losing streak.
Getafe started the new season with high morale, securing a 2-0 away win over Celta Vigo in the first round. The team’s tactics are centered on efficient counterattacks, with a solid defense—keeping clean sheets in two league matches and conceding only 1.1 goals per game (with better away defensive stats than home). The attack relies on the pace of Christian Tello, supported by a compact team structure, and they also pose a threat in set-piece offense and defense. Despite their historical disadvantage (80% loss rate away to Sevilla in the past 5 years), their 3-0 home win over Sevilla last season proves their ability to “spoil the party.” The impact of injuries is minimal (only 2 players, including midfielder Mauro Arambarri, are sidelined), and squad integrity may be the key to securing points away.
Summary:
In terms of the Asian Handicap, Sevilla opened with a -0.25 home handicap at medium-low odds, and the home team’s odds have been continuously dropping. Frankly, based on both teams’ performances last season and their first-round results, Sevilla barely deserve a -0.25 home handicap. However, as a former mid-to-upper-tier La Liga powerhouse, they still hold an advantage in reputation—especially after beating Getafe at home last season, which gives the handicap some justification. In the later stages, the further drop in the home team’s odds indicates that bookmakers’ support and bettors’ tendencies have basically aligned. If this trend continues, the probability of Sevilla claiming their first home win of the season will increase.
